Heavy Duty Trucking

SEP 2014

The Fleet Business Authority

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© 2014 EnerSys. All rights reserved. Trademarks and logos are the property of EnerSys and its affi liates unless otherwise noted. Subject to revisions without prior notice. E.&O.E. ® GIVE YOUR FLEET MORE MUSCLE Engineered with Thin Plate Pure Lead (TPPL) technology, ODYSSEY ® batteries provide superior power with three times the life of ordinary batteries. ODYSSEY Performance Series ™ batteries provide reliable engine starting in any situation, while ODYSSEY Extreme Series ™ batteries are ideal for battery-based APUs that allow you to power auxiliary systems without idling. ODYSSEY batteries keep your fl eet moving and your company saving. Scan this QR code to estimate your savings with our online savings calculator Circle 153 on Reader Action Card 72 HDT • SEPTEMBER 2014 www.truckinginfo.com diesel pump price is the actual oil. Nevertheless, CNG diesel-gallon- equivalent prices are indeed up some- what over the past couple of years — while diesel appears to be stabilizing or even heading down. Perry suggests monthly and quar- terly price fluctuations can obscure the reality, and a longer-term view is required. He suggests oil, and by extension, diesel prices, are now at the top side of a historical cycle that could see diesel pump prices drop be- low $3.50 and remain there for some time — like several years. "Politics aside, we could be sitting at the top of 20-year decline in oil pric- es," Perry says. "Most people would disagree with that because of growing demand from less-developed countries. But they haven't factored in the use of fracking technology to boost energy output in other markets, like Mexico, China, Venezuela and elsewhere." Perry thinks it's probable that the domestic supply of oil will increase over the next 10 years, right along with natural gas. As far as Perry is concerned, cur- rent and estimated North American energy supplies, coupled with poten- tial in the rest of the world, all but guarantee stable fuel prices for the next 20 years. Domestic oil production is having a positive effect on domestic diesel pric- ing, according to Avondale Partners' analyst Donald Broughton. Speaking at the Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference in Dallas last month, he noted that North Dakota is now producing roughly the same as 20% of the total output from Saudi Arabia, and it's growing, providing a buffer against the price volatility we've seen in the past. "Oil prices should be significantly higher than they are, given all the un- rest in the Middle East, the Ukraine and elsewhere," he said. "If not for North Dakota's current output [and elsewhere, assuredly] oil prices could be as high as $140 to $150 per barrel." That they are not (Bloomberg CNG Diesel Date Avg Avg Spread Apr. 08 2.04 4.09 2.05 Apr. 09 1.64 2.22 0.58 Apr. 10 1.90 3.06 1.16 Apr. 11 2.06 4.06 2.02 Apr. 12 2.08 4.11 2.03 Apr. 13 2.10 3.93 1.83 Apr. 14 2.15 3.96 1.81 The CNG-diesel price spread While the DOE figures only go through April, our own estimates of an average as of August show CNG averaging around $2.22, diesel around $3.83, with a spread of $1.61. ALTERNATIVE FUEL

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